000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N-17N116W ALONG 117W IS MOVING 
SLOWLY W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N137W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER 
NEAR 9N137W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS 
ALONG THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 8N78W TO 7N95W 10N100W. ITCZ FROM 10N100W 
TO 5N125W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N137W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM N OF AXIS FROM 91W-97W AND WITHIN 
180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 126W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 16N126W TO 
32N132W. DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 
32N124W TO 21N121W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N 
OF 15N W OF 115W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CONTINUES OFFSHORE TO 14N105W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 
S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT ELY WINDS
FROM 10N-19N W OF 130W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.

ELY WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THEN 20 KT MON MORNING.

$$
DGS