000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N132W TO 08N134W WITH A 1009 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N134W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 131W WINDS ARE NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT WITH 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT LACKS ANY DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N116W TO 17N114W AND IS MOVING 
SLOWLY W. ONLY MINIMAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 11N91W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N91W TO 11N104W TO 12N117W 
TO 06N125W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N134W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF 06N80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 13N118W TO 10N123W LINE. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 136W. THE 
RIDGE IS MOVING E 10 TO 15 KT. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W WITH THE 
AXIS ALONG 125W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR 
25N123W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CONTINUES OFFSHORE TO ABOUT 118W.

A WEAK TROPICAL JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 18N140W TO 20N133W TO 
18N125W WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 50 
KT. ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W WINDS 
ALOFT ARE EASTERLY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 06N E OF 100W 
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. 

$$
CAB