000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17N110W TO 11N113W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N125W TO 8N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION  WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO 9N90W. ITCZ FROM 9N90W TO 8N120W 
11N125W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 138W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 14N129W TO 32N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N126W TO 20N122W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT S 
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 
8N-13N BETWEEN 124W-132W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED 
ABOVE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 22N115W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING ELY TRADES WINDS IN THE 
20-25 KT RANGE FROM 11N-16N W OF 125W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THE 20 KT BY THIS EVENING.

$$
DGS