000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N110W TO 08N112W. THE WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NO TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N123W TO 08N128W. THIS WAVE WAS WELL 
DEPICTED BY A MUCH EARLIER 1736 UTC ASCAT PASS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THIS WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 12N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N95W TO 11N110W...11N113W TO 
12N124W THROUGH 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 12N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W 
AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
NEAR 40N153W THROUGH 30N133W TO 23N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 16N123W TO 08N128W NOTED ABOVE. THE 
AREA OF WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY 1734 AND 1914 UTC ASCAT PASSES. 
THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

FRESH 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KT GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS 
CONTINUE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THE WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$
COBB