000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NOTED EARLIER NEAR 11N125W HAS DEGENERATED 
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTENDS FROM 17N122W TO 08N127W. THIS 
WAS CONFIRMED BY A 1736 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTING THE STRONGLY 
TILTED WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS 0F 11N125W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 07N TO 11N.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N110W TO 08N111W. THE WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N95W TO 11N108W...11N113W TO 
12N123W THROUGH 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 
NM RADIUS OF 11N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
NEAR 40N147W THROUGH 30N133W TO 23N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 125W NOTED ABOVE. THE AREA OF WINDS 
WERE CONFIRMED BY 1734 AND 1914 UTC ASCAT PASSES. THE AREA OF 
FRESH TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. 

FRESH 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KT GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS 
CONTINUE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THE WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$
COBB