000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 10N117W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. RECENT 
ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 30 KT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS 
FEATURE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THIS FEATURE 
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W FROM 08N TO 17N. 
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM E OF TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N TO 15N. FRESH TO 
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 
103W ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE 
DOES NOT SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N93W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES 1038 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N145W 
WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N114W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO 20N W 
OF 128W. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN 
AREAL EXTENT...ONLY COVERING FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 135W BY LATE 
WED NIGHT. 

WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS CONTINUE...BUT REMAIN AT OR 
BELOW 20 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS THESE ARE NOT 
INCLUDED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK 
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNALLY 
DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$
AL