000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 10N115W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N113W 14N114W TO THE 
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 113W AND 
117W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N101W 11N101W. THE WAVE 
COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE AS IN THE MIMIC/TPW 
ANIMATION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. EASTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM
20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE AND WILL REMAIN WITHIN 300 NM OR SO TO THE 
EAST OF THE WAVE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST COMPUTER 
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
WITH THIS FEATURE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 07N78W TO 10N93W TO 08N104W
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N112W...AND
TO 09N124W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N129W BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 97W
AND 108W.

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 06N86W TO 10N101W TO 1007 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N115W TO 09N121W. ITCZ FROM 09N121W TO 09N129W 
BEYOND 06N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 07N84W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N140W TO 25N122W TO 21N111W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
COMPARATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/THE ITCZ HAS BEEN MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KNOT TRADE WINDS 
FROM 7N TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 120W AS DEPICTED BY EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 
17N TO THE WEST OF 126W AT THE START OF TIME PERIOD. THE AREA
OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SHRINK WITH TIME
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W 
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FEET
FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. 

$$
MT