000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230909
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
10N112W IS THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
EXTENDING FROM 16N111W TO LOW CENTER AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE 
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N95W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 09N96W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...THOUGH 
THERE IS NO EVIDENT ORGANIZATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE WAVE WILL 
CONTINUE SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH 
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
WITH THIS FEATURE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO A 1008 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N112W TO 08N126W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
42N143W EXTENDS TO A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N118W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 
KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 125W. THE AREA OF FRESH 
TRADES DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEAK E GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND 
EVENTS ARE OCCURRING...BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT FOR THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECASTS. 

$$
AL