000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211532 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N105W TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N108W. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC/TPW ANIMATION. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS S OF 11N...AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE LOW PRES. N OF 11N...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AROUND 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW PRES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N92W TO 09N100W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N108W TO 11N116W TO 10N128W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 1ON BETWEEN 81W AND 105W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 38N141W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 125W AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN N OF THE AREA BY MON. AS A RESULT... SEAS GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REACH THE N WATERS. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE IS NEAR 08N92W AND THE SECOND IS NEAR 08N108W. THIS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IN COMPARISON...THE ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD BE THE RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS OF 21-22 SECONDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COAST OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FAR S PORTION OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SWELL TRAIN SLOWLY SUBSIDES. A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW. FRESH GAP WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE TODAY AND SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON. $$ GR