000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 18.9N 119.9W MOVING NW AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT TO 150 NM IN SE 
QUADRANT. FABIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROPICAL 
STORM WITH THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TONIGHT 
AND TUE AS IT MOVES A REGION OF COOLER WATERS...A DRIER AIR MASS 
AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO 07N110W TO 
10N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF THE FORECAST 
AREA NEAR 44N148W THROUGH 34N140W THEN N OF FABIO TO 25N120W. 
FRESH N-NE WINDS REACH NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 129W AND 135W... 
THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND 
AN AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE N OF 
FABIO WILL ERODE AND TROUGHING OVER NE WATERS WILL SHIFT THE 
FRESH NE WINDS INTO FAR NW WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT LOW EMILIA CONTINUE TO 
MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS TO 20 KT AND 7-8 FT SEAS 
WERE INDICATED EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE... 
AND EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF WEAK LL 
CIRCULATIONS MOVING W AS WAVE-LIKE FEATURES THROUGH FRI WITH 
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. WINDS INTO 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO AROUND 
20 KT THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MAX SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 6-8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL