000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE FABIO AT 17.8N 119.1W MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
WIND 80 GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. FABIO EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS...DRIER 
AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. FABIO FORECAST TO BECOME 
TROPICAL STORM LATE MON. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

REMNANTS OF EMILIA AT 15.3N 140.6W MOVING W AT 15 KT WITH 
MAXIMUM WIND 20 TO 25 KT. ALTHOUGH A WELL PRESERVED CIRCULATION 
STILL NOTED IN EMILIA...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED TO ONLY 
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM NW OF CENTER. EMILIA 
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W AS REMNANT LOW PRES. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N91W TO 09N98W TO 
08N110W TO 08N115W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N123W TO 06N135W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
75 NM OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 129W TO 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WELL N OF AREA AT 44N144W DRIFTING W. WEAK 
RIDGE EXTENDS E-SE TO 22N113W. WITH RIDGE SO FAR N...LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT IN 
VICINITY OF HURRICANE FABIO. WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED 
IN MONSOON TROUGH AT 09N101W STRUGGLES OVERCOMING MINOR SE WIND 
SHEAR ALOFT AS IT MEANDERS OVER WATERS ALREADY COOLED BY EMILIA 
AND FABIO. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACCESSIBLE FOR TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION...LOW PRES MAY SLOWLY OVERCOME ADVERSE 
ENVIRONMENT...BUT UNLIKELY WITHIN NEXT 2-4 DAYS.

EMILIA ALREADY W OF 140W BUT REMNANT STRONG E WINDS CONTINUE 
BARELY AT THE EDGE OF E PAC BASIN AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WITHIN BY MON. FABIO HAS MANAGED TO SURVIVE AS A HURRICANE IN 
SPITE OF BELOW 25 C SST...BUT STEEPEST DROP IS STILL JUST AHEAD 
OF IT. IMMEDIATE EFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED LATE TONIGHT AS 
FABIO WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM BY LATE MON. 

$$
WALLY BARNES