000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE FABIO AT 17.4N 118.2W MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
WIND 85 GUSTS TO 105 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES. FABIO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS...DRIER AIR MASS 
AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. FABIO FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL 
STORM LATE MON. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA AT 15.4N 139.5W MOVING W 
AT 16 KT WITH MAXIMUM WIND 20 TO 25 KT.  ALTHOUGH A WELL 
PRESERVED CIRCULATION STILL NOTED IN EMILIA...CONVECTION HAS 
DIMINISHED TO ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM NW OF 
CENTER.  EMILIA EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W AS 
REMNANT LOW PRES.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 10N87W TO 08N95W TO 
08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N117W TO 05N133W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WELL N OF AREA AT 44N144W DRIFT W OF 150W BY  
WED.  WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS E-SE TO 27N120W.  WITH RIDGE SO FAR N 
...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES EMILIA AND FABIO.  WEAK 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH AT 09N100W 
STRUGGLES OVERCOMING MINOR SE WIND SHEAR ALOFT AS IT MEANDERS 
OVER WATERS ALREADY COOLED BY EMILIA AND FABIO.  WITH ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE ACCESSIBLE FOR TROPICAL ORGANIZATION...LOW PRES MAY 
SLOWLY OVERCOME ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT....BUT UNLIKELY WITHIN NEXT 
2-4 DAYS.

EXPECT EMILIA TO RACE W AND FURTHER WEAKEN THROUGH MON AS IT 
EXITS E PAC BASIN AND MOVES W OF 140W.  FABIO HAS MANAGED TO 
SURVIVE AS SST DIMINISH BELOW 25 C BUT THE STEEPEST DROP IS JUST 
AHEAD OF IT.  IMMEDIATE EFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE NOTED TONIGHT AS 
FABIO WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM BY LATE MON.  

$$
WALLY BARNES