000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121620
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA NEAR 15.1N 121.4W MOVING W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM E AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLES. EMILIA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR...BECOMING  A TROPICAL STORM ON FRI...THEN DISSIPATING AS 
POST-TROPICAL LOW W OF 140W EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 13.6N 107.3W MOVING W AT 8 KT.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM IN NE QUADRANT. FABIO WILL 
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES W-NW THROUGH SAT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 13N100W... 
AND FROM 09N121W TO 06N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS W FROM 06N130W TO 
05N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE TROUGH E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
45 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 22N111W. THE RIDGE IS VERY 
BROAD E OF 128W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...HOWEVER A TIGHTER 
GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING TO THE W OF 128W AS HURRICANE EMILIA 
PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE SE. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 
FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W...WITH SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.

WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL LOW DANIEL CONTINUE 
TO MOVE WESTWARD...WITH A REMNANT OF 7-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS NEAR 
20 KT LOCATED BETWEEN 15-22N E OF 138W. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE
TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT AT TIMES THROUGH SUN. 

EXPECT THE DEEP TROPICS TO REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 10-11N
E OF 115W AS FABIO MOVES POLEWARD AND BREAKS AWAY FROM THE TROUGH
WHILE NO FURTHER TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY S OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH SUN...BASED ON GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

$$
MUNDELL