000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED AT 13.9N 114.5W MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 953 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 110 GUSTS 
TO 135 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
OF CENTER.  WEAKENING EXPECTED THROUGH FRI BECOMING TROPICAL 
STORM LATE FRI.  CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AGREE ON TRACK AND INTENSITY 
WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL AT 15.3N 136.6W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1000 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 
TO 65 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. 
DANIEL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER 
WATERS AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON WED NIGHT AFTER 
IT MOVES W OF 140W.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AT 12N102W EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH 
MOVING W-NW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ENHANCE ITS OUTFLOW.  ALTHOUGH SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY EMILIA'S PATH...THEY 
STILL REMAIN ABOVE 29 CELSIUS AND FAVORABLE FOR SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS 50 PERCENT CHANCE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS 
INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N102W TO 13N106W 
AND CONTINUES FROM 09N118W TO 06N126W.  ITCZ FROM 06N126W TO 
BEYOND 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR MASS N OF 10N W OF 120W HAS DONE GOOD WORK ERODING 
MOISTURE OUT OF DANIEL AND WITH COOLER SST THE SYSTEM HAS NOW 
WEAKENED TO TROPICAL STORM THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION WED...AND REMNANT LOW PRES BY THU.  AS DANIEL MOVES W 
...HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA IS ABLE TO EXPAND FURTHER 
S THU INCREASING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH ALONG 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING FRESH N WINDS W OF BAJA COAST.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL COMBINE WITH THOSE GENERATED BY 
DANIEL AND EMILIA RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8-10 FT S OF 25N W OF 
125W.  S SWELL COMPONENT SUBSIDE SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH DANIEL W 
MOVE WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL 
EMILIA ARRIVES.

STRONG E WIND OVER SW CARIBBEAN SEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO MODERATE TO 
FRESH E BREEZE WITH SEAS BARELY TO 8 FT STARTING EARLY THU AND 
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES