000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE DANIEL IS NEAR 15.4N 132.2W MOVING W OT 270 DEGREES AT 
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. DANIEL 
IS NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE 
MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DANIEL 
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...AND TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

HURRICANE EMILIA IS NEAR 13.3N 111.7W MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEGREES 
AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 KT GUSTS TO 130 KT. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. EMILIA HAS 
REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 
EMILIA CONTINUING ON A WNW TRACK AS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N99W 
TO 12N102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N99W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE RESULT OF A COMPLEX INTERACTION 
BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE AND RESULTANT GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL BE OF 
INTEREST TO WATCH AS IT CONTINUES ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE IT WILL 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 
FT ARE FOUND S OF 07N W OF 107W. THE SWELL WILL MIX WITH 
SLIGHTLY SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM BOTH DANIEL AND 
EMILIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL 
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT THU AFTERNOON. 

THE PAPAGAYO JET CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND IS PRODUCING FRESH 
WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W... INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT LEAST 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL