000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 120.0W AT 07/2100 UTC 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE IN A BAND S AND E OF THE 
CENTER OF DANIEL ROUGHLY FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 121W. 
DANIEL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY W AS A HURRICANE 
THROUGH SUN...WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM SUN NIGHT...AND 
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY. 

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 09.9N 
101.6W AT 07/2100 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. T.D. FIVE-E IS 
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY TO A 
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE 
MONDAY.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 11N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N129W TO BEYOND 07N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N FROM 78W TO 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
33N153W HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE 
DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 
17N W OF 130W. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF 
DANIEL...WITH A SMALL AREA OF TRADES...MAINLY FROM 08N TO 10N W 
OF 138W BY MON AFTERNOON.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT ARE 
S OF 04N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...S OF 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W AND 
S OF 04N. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL MIX WITH SEAS GENERATED BY DANIEL AND TD 
FIVE-E...COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 107W.

$$
AL