000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

HURRICANE DANIEL NEAR 14.6N 118.1W OR 785 MILES SW OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 07/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF DANIEL...WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE AND 45 NM 
IN THE SW QUADRANTS. DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W AS A 
HURRICANE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM SUN 
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
WEDNESDAY.

1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 10N98W OR ABOUT 500 MILES S-SE OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A 
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND IT HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HOWEVER STILL 
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO. THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES W-NW NEAR 10-15 
KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 12N95W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N98W 1006 MB TO 08N107W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W AND 
ALSO FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM IN THE W 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N153W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE 
DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 
16N W OF 125W. THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF DANIEL...BARELY 
EXTENDING INTO THE AREA BY 48 HOURS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT 
MEASURED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS ARE S OF 04N BETWEEN 82W AND 
90W...AND ALSO S OF 04N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...COVERING 
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA S OF 04N BY TONIGHT.

FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED AHEAD OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO 
CONTINUE TO INDUCE FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT AS THE WAVE 
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...AND THEN DIMINISHING BACK TO FRESH BY 
SUN NIGHT AS THE WAVE DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO.

$$
LEWITSKY