000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 114.9W AT 06/1500 
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. 
DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 
WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH FAVORS 
STRENGTHENING. SO...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO INTENSIFY 
TO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND MOVE WESTWARD.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1006 MB NEAR 8.5N94W ON 
THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE 
STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE N AND AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS LOW 
PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM 
DANIEL. ONE PART EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 8.5N94W TO 
10N102W. THE SECOND PART EXTENDS FROM 11N119W TO 09N125W THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG N OF 06N E OF 80W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM O7N TO 10N BETWEEN 
95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...SW TO W FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 120W WHERE 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N114W 
WITH RIDGE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE MAINLY NWD TO 30N116W. AN 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W. 

HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 35N152W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ALONG WITH 
THE PROXIMITY OF T.S. DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 20 KT N 
TO NE WINDS FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE HIGH IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES COVERING ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 15N W 
OF 125W. 

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. SHIP CALLSIGN LAMP5 LOCATED NEAR 11N89W REPORTED 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO SEEN ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY 
INCREASE TO 30 KT EARLY SAT MORNING.

$$
GR