000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 111.7W AT 05/2100 
UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT GUST TO 
60 KT. SEA LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. 
DANIEL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY AS IT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N95W TO 08N103W THEN 
RESUMES AT 12N116W TO 11N125W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 
BEYOND 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 36N154W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 10N TO 18N W 
OF 130W. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
MAINTAINING THIS SMALL ARE OF FRESH TRADES.   

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DECREASED 
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IS STARTING TO 
INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. THIS CIRCULATION IS STILL BROAD ENOUGH WHERE A LOW 
CENTER HAS NOT BEEN PLACED ONTO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. BASED ON 
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE 
DISCREET WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH ASSISTANCE OF 
GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE EAST PACIFIC WILL 
CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTERESTING TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS 
BACKGROUND FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE FAVORABLE 
FOR THE GROWTH OF DISTURBANCES. 

$$
AL