000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050857
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 109.9W AT 05/0900 
UTC MOVING WNW 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1005 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KT GUST TO 40 KT. SEA LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N 
BETWEEN 108W-121W.. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL 
STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM AS IT 
MOVES WNW THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 7N78W TO 11N105W THEN RESUMES AT 12N112W TO 
09N120W. ITCZ 9120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N W OF 84W AND FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 87W-93W 
AND 7N-11N BETWEEN 108W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 125-136W WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE W OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N116W WITH RIDGE FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE SW TO 14N12W. THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED S 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED INTO THE N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITHIN 180 NM OF COAST FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 18N W OF 120W. THE RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED 
SOME AND TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 16N-20N W OF 135W

ELY WINDS 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY FRI.
NLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT.

$$
DGS