000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031620
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
LOW PRES CENTER 1006 MB AT 11N101W MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT WITH 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SW 
AND W QUADRANTS.  FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALLOWS FOR 
SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT HOLDS AND EVEN 
WEAKENS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS W INTO A MORE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS 08N78W TO 08N92W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N115W TO 
07N130W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 06N140W.  NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 03N E OF 83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NW SN OF AXIS FROM 116W TO 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 19N131W HAS VERY DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS COVER MOST OF BASIN N OF 11N W OF 121W.  
SMALL NOT TOO WELL DEFINED CYCLONE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 13N115W SPLITTING E-W UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER MEXICO EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 
10N110W PROVIDING AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE OVER SURFACE LOW 
PRES CENTER AT 11N101W...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 
48 HRS...AND ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ON W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW 
PRES.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STRONG E WIND OVER SW CARIBBEAN SPILL ACROSS NICARAGUA BRINGING 
FRESH E-NE BREEZE AND SEAS TO 8 FT TO GULF OF PAPAGAYO E OF 90W. 
TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 77W EXPECTED TO ENTER E PAC LATE 
THU AND ENHANCE E FLOW AND CONVECTION E OF 90W.

$$
WALLY BARNES