000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 10N100W. THIS LOW IS MOVING W-NW AT 
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS 
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES W-NW 
AROUND 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 8N78W 10N85W 8N95W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10N101W. ITCZ AXIS 10N114W 6N140W. NUMEROUR STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHN 300 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 220 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM N S 
OF AXIS FROM 113W-117W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N130W 
WITH RIDGE SW TO 17N140 AND ANOTHER RIDGE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE 
NE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 115W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N110W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A RIDGE TO THE N IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ACROSS NW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATES THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 
15N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THE CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 90W-103W.

ELY WINDS 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAO.

$$
DGS