000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 10N100W. THIS LOW IS MOVING W-NW AT 
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
AS IT CONTINUES W-NW AROUND 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 
07N93W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 08N113W TO 10N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 96W AND 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.
 

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEMS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM NEAR 
38N153W AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N116W. TRADE WINDS ARE 
DOWN TO A MODERATE BREEZE AT THE MOMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 
NARROW SLIVER OVER FAR W WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ WHERE WINDS 
ARE HOVERING AROUND 20 KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED EVENING.  

DEEP LAYERED INVERTED TROUGHING BETWEEN 110W AND 120W IS FORCING 
A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 112W FROM 09N TO 16N. THIS 
TROUGH WAS CAPTURED BY THE 1856 UTC OSCAT PASS. CONVECTION FOUND 
S OF THIS TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION 
ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE MAXIMA NEAR 
06N111W. CONVECTION HERE IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT OF THIS 
MOISTURE BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE TO 
THE N NEAR 20N126W AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 02N118W WITH A 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 02N130W. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 
SHOULD SHIFT W WITH THESE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND LOWER PRES TO THE SW WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH 
THROUGH WED EVENING FOR A SUSTAINED FRESH BREEZE IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER IN THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE AREA OF FRESH SE TO S WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE SHRINKING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THESE 
WINDS ARE INDUCED BY THE DIMINISHING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER NE WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 27N AND 
WILL SHIFT TO N OF 30N TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY 
WED.
      
$$
SCHAUER