000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE LIES FROM 14N99W TO 07N99W WITH LOW PRES 10N99W 
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE. THE WAVE AND LOW ARE MOVING W AT 
5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
BETWEEN 75 NM AND 150 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 12N WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 
96W AND 106W. THIS WAVE LIES ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW 
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR OAXACA...MEXICO. THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEEPENING OF 
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THIS LOW WILL 
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS LIES FROM 08N77W TO 08N88W TO 07N96W 
THEN FROM 09N114W TO 07N130W. ITCZ AXIS LIES FROM 07N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 75 NM AND 270 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 88W AND WITHIN 210 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
114W AND 126W AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W.
 

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEMS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM NEAR 
37N153W AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N116W. TRADE WINDS ARE 
DOWN TO A MODERATE BREEZE AT THE MOMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 
NARROW SLIVER OVER FAR W WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ WHERE WINDS 
ARE HOVERING AROUND 20 KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED AFTERNOON. THE DEEP 
LAYER TROUGHING THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN U.S. YESTERDAY IS 
RAPIDLY ERODING AS IS THE TIGHT SURFACE PRES GRADIENT THAT 
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH NW WINDS NOW 
CONFINED TO N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE PENINSULA WILL 
DISSIPATE TO A MODERATE BREEZE AFTER SUNSET.  

DEEP LAYERED INVERTED TROUGHING BETWEEN 110W AND 120W IS FORCING 
A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 111W. CONVECTION FOUND 
PRIMARILY S AND W OF THE TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A 
MOISTURE MAXIMA NEAR 06N111W. CONVECTION HERE IS BEING ENHANCED 
BY LIFT OF THIS MOISTURE BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN 
EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE TO THE N NEAR 21N126W AND AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 02N116W WITH A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 02N132W. THE 
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT W WITH THESE FEATURES 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND LOWER PRES TO THE SW WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH 
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED FRESH BREEZE IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER IN THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS CAUGHT SOME FRESH 
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE 
CONDITIONS EXTEND SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF TO 26N. THESE WINDS ARE 
INDUCED BY THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGING OVER NE WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. 
FRESH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK TO N OF 30N BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD WED AFTERNOON.
      
$$
SCHAUER