000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 7N106W TO 8N115W. ITCZ FROM 8N115W TO 08N125W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 106W-114W AND WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
114W-122W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 14N96W TO 8N98W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE AS IT MOVES W LATE TODAY.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
22N124W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N 
BETWEEN 113W-135W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 15N 
W OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NW MEXICO 
NEAR 26N107W. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS JUST NW OF THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO 15N110W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT S OF THE 
CIRCULATION ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH 
LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT 
FOR 20 KT NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26W 
W TO 119W. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 
20 KT TONIGHT.

ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

$$
DGS