000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA 
NEAR 08N78W TO 07N95W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N95W TO 05N107W 
TO 09N117W TO 06N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
W OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...
NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 02N TO 04N E OF 81W...AND WITHIN 60 
NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 132W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
A QUIET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA INTO
THE PACIFIC. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL E WIND FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH WINDS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT EVENING. THIS WAVE 
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE BY SAT NIGHT. SOME OF 
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM 
THIS DISTURBANCE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY 
A BROAD LOW PRES TROUGH S OF 10N-15N AND A WEAK RIDGE N OF 20N. 
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN 
MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5 FT OR LESS. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
WILL PUSH S TOWARDS 30N SAT...AND MAINTAIN A VERY WEAK PRES 
GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL 
SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 25N-30N SUN THROUGH TUE...ALLOWING 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO REDEVELOP S OF 20N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
MUNDELL