000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 18000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N92W. IT RESUMES AGAIN AT 19N112W TO 09N123W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N131W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W -131W. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO THAT PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED NW TO THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM IT SW TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE AT 21N126W AND WNW TO 22N140W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORTEX OFF THE NW PACIFIC U.S. COAST IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE ANTICYCLONE. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION NW OF THE DEEP TROPICS. THE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS MAINTAINING VERY DRY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NW OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW ARE PRESENT FROM 15N TO 29N AND W OF 119W. WHAT IS LEFT OF A PREVIOUS WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WAS SSE OF THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW DEPICTED AS A STATIONARY LARGE WEAK LOW TO MID CLOUD SWIRL AT 19N115W. TO THE SSE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 83W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-89W. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD BY THE SAME NE TO E FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL STRETCH SW ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N PORTIONS OF AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SURGE OF N-NE 20 KT WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM NEAR 32N131W TO 26N140W BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON ...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN IN A N SWELL ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH N-NE 15 KT. LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS MOVING WWD ACROSS WRN S AMERICA. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOW LATITUDES OF THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THERE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA JUST S OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND REACHES SE TO NEAR 23N119W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED NW TO SE ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT NE-E TRADES WERE NOTED NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...AND LIGHT SLY WINDS WERE NOTED S OF THESE SAME FEATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD E TO SE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION MON THROUGH TUE...AND INTERACT WITH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TROUGH TO ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NE PORTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20 KT THERE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE