000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N96W TO 15N110W TO 10N122W
TO 05N130W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
100W-107W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 110W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 22N132W MOVING SLOWLY 
SE WITH A RIDGE NW THROUGH 24N140W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE SE TO
20N125W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC
VORTEX OFF THE NW PACIFIC U.S. COAST IS PRESENT TO THE N OF
THE ANTICYCLONE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA FROM 32N122W TO 
27N118W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION NW OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED. A NEARLY 
STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS INLAND MEXICO AT 21N102W WITH A 
RIDGE SW TO 15N120W. STRONG NE TO E FLOW PERSISTS ON SRN 
PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE. THE FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM 07N TO 
14N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W...AND IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 93W-104W. 
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD BY THE SAME NE TO E FLOW S OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 22N132W WILL REBUILD 
TO THE SW WITHIN NEXT THE 48 HRS...WHILE THE TROUGH ALSO BECOMES 
REPOSITIONED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS FAR NW AND N PORTIONS OF AREA. 
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP 
SWD TOWARDS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON SUN...
AND REACH A LINE FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 25N140W BY LATE MON. A 
BRIEF INSTANCE OF 20 KT N WINDS MAY JUST TOUCH THE FAR NW 
PORTION SUN INTO EARLY MON WHERE SEAS 7-8 FT IN A N SWELL ARE 
POSSIBLE.

LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS VERY SHORT AMPLITUDE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS WRN S AMERICA. SOME OF THIS WAVE
ENERGY MAY EMERGE INTO THE LOW LATITUDES OF THE FAR ERN PORTION
OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THERE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N140W AND REACHES SE TO NEAR 22N121W. 
THE RIDGE IS BRIDGING ACROSS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT 
STRETCHES FROM SRN CALIFORNIA SW TO 29N127W. LIGHT NW-N WINDS
WERE REVEALED ACROSS THE FRONT BY AN OSCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED NW TO SE ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND 
THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT N 
OF 24N E OF 122W. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT INTO THE FAR NW PORTION ON SUN...THIS WILL ACT TO BREAK 
DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH TO WEAKEN. THIS EFFECT WILL 
LOWER THE NW 20 KT WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON.
EARLIER ASCAT DATA DEPICTED N-NE 15 KT WINDS IN THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT NE-E TRADES WERE NOTED NW 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ...AND LIGHT SLY WINDS WERE NOTED 
S OF THESE SAME FEATURES.

$$
AGUIRRE