000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N90W. IT THEN 
RESUMES FROM A WEAK 1007 MB LOW AT 19N108W SW TO 10N120W AND
TO 05N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO 
THE ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 23N132W MOVING SLOWLY
SE WITH A RIDGE WNW TO 23N140W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE NE TO OVER
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO HE SW U.S. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD 
UPPER TROUGHING IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE ANTICYCLONE. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER JUST 
ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION N OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON AND ITCZ W OF 110W.  STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
OVER INLAND MEXICO AT 20N101W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 16N116W. 
STRONG NE TO E FLOW PERSISTS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE. 
THE FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W 
...AND IS AIDING IN THE DURATION OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 06N90W TO 05N90W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY THE SAME NE TO E FLOW 
WESTWARD TO NEAR 108W. UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL REBUILD TO THE SW 
WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS...WHILE THE TROUGH ALSO BECOMES REPOSITIONED 
FROM NE TO SW ACROSS FAR NW AND N PORTIONS OF AREA.

LONG-TERM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE ACTIVE 
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE AREA S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH MAY ATTRIBUTED TO A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE THAT HAS 
DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER CROSSING NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA BASED ON A STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS.

A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL RESULT IN 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND GENERALLY SUBSIDING SEAS OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN A SMALL 
AREA W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N E OF 121W INITIALLY 
WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY N WITHIN
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND DIMINISH IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE