000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA 
TO SOUTHEAST MEXICO NEAR 17N97W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED DUE 
TO CARLOTTA. THE TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 19N107W TO LOW 
PRES 1006 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 17N109W TO 
SECOND LOW PRES 1007 MB EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
12.5N118W TO 02N133W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM NW AND 180 NM SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...
TWIN 1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL 
PACIFIC ALONG 150W...CENTERED JUST A FEW HUNDRED MILES N AND S 
OF A STATIONARY FRONT NW OF THE AREA...STRETCHED W TO E ALONG 
39N. MEANWHILE...A DEEP LAYERED SURFACE LOW PRES 1011 MB IS 
CENTERED NEAR 27N124W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO 
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING STRONG N TO NE WINDS NW OF LINE FROM 
30N128W TO 20N136W TO 15N140W...WITH A 2124 UTC OSCAT PASS 
SUGGESTING NE WINDS TO 30 KT ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AND DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH 
CONTINUING TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR 136W BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS 
WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE N TO NE SWELL 
OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. 

AN ANOMALOUSLY ACTIVE AND STRONG MONSOON TROUGH PREVAILS OVER 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...MEANDERING NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THEN RESUMES FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 02N140W. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE 
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE SUPPORTED 
BY FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE 
FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP 
FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW TO SPREAD NORTH AND 
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FRESH MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PERSISTENT UNSTABLE 
WEATHER AND RECENT RAINS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST 
SEVERAL DAYS MAKE FOR A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT PERIODS OF MODERATE 
TO HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUDSLIDES. IN PARTICULAR...THOSE REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 
ABUNDANT RAINFALL PRODUCED BY CARLOTTA ARE HIGHEST AT RISK. THIS 
VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR 
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.  

$$
STRIPLING