000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE CARLOTTA CENTERED AT 16.6N 98.4W AT 0900 UTC OR 110 NM 
ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OVER INLAND 
MEXICO. FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA JUST INLAND. 
CARLOTTA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY 
AND A REMNANT LOW SUN NIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED 
WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES NEAR CARLOTTA. ALL INTEREST 
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 19N110W TO 1008 MB LOW 14N112W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N 
BETWEEM 107W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N117W WITH 
RIDGE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N133W RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO 30N136W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 28N130W. VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 
15N W OF 105W WITH THE AREA FREE OF ANY CONVECTION. A 75-80 
KT JETSTREAM IS OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N125W TO 27N115W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER N OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 
117W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE 
RIDGE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TROUGH ALONG CALIFORNIA 
PRODUCING NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 25W W OF 120W. 

SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB NEAR 14N112W WITH SW WINDS 20-25 
KT WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W 
AND DISSIPATE MON.

$$
DGS