000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE CARLOTTA CENTERED AT 1N 9W AT 1500 UTC OR 330 NM SE OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 985 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS 
INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.  CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE 
WRAPPED AROUND THE EYE OF CARLOTTA WITH NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.  FORECAST TRACK TAKES CENTER 
OF CARLOTTA ALONG OR JUST OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON 
FRI TURNING W-NW SAT.  CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY 
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RAINFALL AS MUCH AS 6-10 INCHES ARE 
EXPECTED OVER SRN OAXACA WITH ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 
12-15 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS   PRODUCING DANGEROUS FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  ALL INTEREST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF CARLOTTA.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 13N90W THEN FROM 14N104W TO 15N108W TO LOW
PRES 1008 MB AT 14N111W TO 06N128W TO 07N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 124W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 19N119W EXPANDS E-W ACROSS 
ENTIRE BASIN N OF 10N.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 15N W OF 105W 
MAINTAINS MOST OF AREA FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE OVER GUATEMALA IS SEPARATED FROM FIRST ONE BY SHARP 
WEAKNESS FROM 20N102W TO 10N107W.  DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH PROVIDES OPPORTUNITY FOR HURRICANE 
CARLOTTA TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST UNTIL LAND 
INTERACTION HAMPERS ITS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 34N138W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
22N111W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW CLOUDS NOTED UNDER 
RIDGE UMBRELLA.  RIDGE TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT AGAINST TROUGH 
ALONG CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS WITH GALE FORCE NWLY WINDS N OF 31N 
PROMPTING FRESH NW TRADES FROM 25N TO 30N THEN INCREASING TO A 
STRONG BREEZE SAT AND SUN. 

SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB AT 13N111W WITH STRONG WINDS 
WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 8-10 FT.  LOW PRES DEVELOPS 
TROUGH TO ITS SW SUN EXTENDING AREA OF FRESH SW BREEZE WITHIN 
210 NM SE OF AXIS TO 06N127W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES