000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 94.2W AT 2100 
UTC OR ABOUT 480 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING NNW OR 330 
DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE 
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO 
REACH HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST 
TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION  
OCCURRING IN BANDS WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF CARLOTTA...WHILE  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND 240 NM S OF CENTER. HEAVY RAIN 
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST 
MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W 
TO 11N91W...WHERE IT HAS SEPARATED FROM T.S. CARLOTTA...THEN 
RESUMES W OF T.S. CARLOTTA AT 14N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N109.5W 
1007 MB TO 10N122W TO 06N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N137W IN 
COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN US IS SUPPORTING GALE 
FORCE N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH 
NLY FLOW TO 20 KT AND 8-9 FT SEAS IN N SWELL EXTENDING S TO 27N 
BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. THE HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT SW OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRES 
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT N OF 24N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... 
WITH N WINDS 25 TO 3O KT N OF 27N. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 
13 FT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON SAT. 

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO SEPARATE 
INTO TWO SEGMENTS...WITH ONE SEGMENT CURRENTLY FROM COLOMBIA TO 
JUST NE OF T.S. CARLOTTA...AND A SECOND SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM 
NW OF CARLOTTA SW THROUGH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
SPANNING BETWEEN 102W AND 130W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SURROUNDING 
THE EASTERN TROUGH SEGMENT...AND CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED 
WITH DRIER AIR. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF 
90W. HOWEVER... A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH SW-W WINDS 
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 125W...AND IS FORCING 
ACTIVE CONVECTION S OF THE AXIS THERE. THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO TWO BOOK 
END VORTICES...WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN RECENT HOURS ACROSS 
THE W END OF THIS PORTION OF THE LOBE. AS CARLOTTA MOVES NW AND 
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AFTER 48 HOURS...THIS W SEGMENT OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL ALSO LIFT N IN TANDEM...WITH SW MONSOONAL 
FLOW ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS 
OF MEXICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NW HALF OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW AND BEGIN 
TO FOCUS ACROSS SE MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH INCREASING 
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED 
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN 
STATES OF GUERRERO... OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

$$
STRIPLING