000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 93.3W MOVING NW AT 
9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. MINIMUM 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 13 
FT EXTEND OUTWARD TO 40 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE 
ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED 
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER AND 
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF 
OAXACA STATE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING.
 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE N SEMICIRCLE OF CARLOTTA...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.
HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST 
MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO TS CARLOTTA CENTERED 
NEAR 10.3N93.3W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N106W 1006 MB TO 07N121W TO 
07N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 101W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WELL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH ANCHORED BY TS CARLOTTA REMAINS 
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH SW-W 
WINDS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING UNUSUALLY FAR WEST TO AROUND 
135W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG 09N-10N IS ENHANCING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A BROAD LOW PRES TROUGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N106W BASED ON 0400 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.

HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVER 
THE WESTERN US IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE N WINDS ALONG THE COAST 
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH NLY FLOW TO 20 KT AND 8-9 FT SEAS 
IN N SWELL EXTENDING S TO 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. WINDS AND 
SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...WITH SEAS BELOW 12 FEET.

THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN 
CONCERT WITH CARLOTTA. THIS WILL CREATE A REVERSE-ORIENTED NE-SW 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL CHANNEL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
A WEAK LOW WILL DRIFT SW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO AROUND 22N 
129W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SHIFT AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG N-NE WINDS FURTHER WEST INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
MUNDELL