000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132203 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1006 MB LOW IS ESTIMATED TO BE CENTERED NEAR 08.5N92W... EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND N OF A REGION OF FAIRLY STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW. ALTHOUGH SHORT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE WITHIN 150 NM ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE E SEMICIRCLE...AND TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY SLOT FEEDING INTO THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW CURRENTLY IS A MODERATE 10-20 KT FROM THE SW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NW SHIFTS W. THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH...60 PERCENT...CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY ONCE THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM TONIGHT...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST OF MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 09N73W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N82W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES 08.5N92W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N105W 1008 MB TO 11N115W TO LOW PRES 07.5N131W 1010 MB...THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND LOW PRES NEAR 07N140W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 310 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 120W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW TO W MONSOONAL WINDS EXTENDING WEST TO NEAR 135W. THE TROUGH IS NARROW BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...WHICH HAS HELPED TO INDUCE SEVERAL LOW LEVEL LOWS WITHIN THE TROUGH THROUGH THIS AREA. ONE OF THESE LOWS NEAR 107W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME THE MAIN LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE E END OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO...WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW CURRENTLY ALONG 92W...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SW MONSOON FLOW PERSISTING S OF THE TROUGH W OF 110W. VERY WET WEATHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS W INTO SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 41N135W IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US IS FORCING 20 KT N WINDS ALONG WITH 8 FT N SWELL BETWEEN 120W AND 130W N OF 26N. THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS GENERAL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT STAY BELOW GALE WINDS AND BELOW 12 FOOT SEAS. THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL BE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS. THE RATHER QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW BY THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME. ...GAP WINDS... THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW ARE INDUCING A 20 TO 25 KT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SHORTLY...THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD BY TOMORROW MORNING. $$ STRIPLING