000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N96W 1010 
MB TO 10N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N113W 1008 MB TO 07N124W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N124W TO 
06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N 
OF 03N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 13N98W TO 05N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

1008 MB BROAD LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N113W EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME 
LESS ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY 
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES 
MISSED THE LOW ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS IS LIKELY 
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...EXCEPT IN THE SW 
QUADRANT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE LOW DISSIPATES. THIS 
SYSTEM NOW HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS W OR W-NW.

THE EDGE OF AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BREACH THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 
125W AND 131W WITH 8 FT SEAS ACCOMPANYING THESE WINDS. EXPECT 
THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO 27N 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE NORTHERLY SWELL BUILDS TO 9 
FT. 

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES AREA 
SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY MID WEEK. THE POSSIBLE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK NW INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OR CENTRAL AMERICA LATER THIS WEEK WHILE BECOMING 
STRONGER. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS 
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO FRESH W-SW 
WINDS S OF THE TROUGH. NEITHER MODEL DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT LOW 
PRES SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK LOW ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH UNLESS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION OCCURS.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE SEEPING THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO 90W. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. CYCLONIC VORTICITY FROM THE ENHANCED EASTERLY 
WINDS MAY AID INITIAL SPIN-UP OF ANY NEW LOW PRES AREAS THAT MAY 
DEVELOP IN THIS GENERAL REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SE MEXICO 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...AND LOWER PRES IN THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE TUE EVENING AND WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH WED EVENING UNDER THIS SCENARIO.

$$
LEWITSKY