000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1007 MB CENTERED NEAR 11N110.5W AT 1200 UTC REMAINS 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH UNDER AN INCREASINGLY LESS 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
EASTERLY WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS THERE ARE TWO 
OR THREE POSSIBLE CENTERS. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE 
HOSTILE...THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WAS LOWERED TO 30 PERCENT 
EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND 
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N95W TO 
09N100W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 11N110.5W TO 06N124W. ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 06N124W TO 06N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 97W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W... 
AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS 
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS. GENTLE TO 
MODERATE BREEZE CURRENTLY DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT 
FOR 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOW CENTER NEAR 
11N110.5W. THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1030 MB HIGH AT 35N140W HAS RELAXED OVER THE 
PAST 12-24 HOURS...ALLOWING N TO NE WINDS W OF NORTHERN BAJA TO 
DIMINISH AS WELL AS E-NE TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND IN AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 104W. 

THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AREA NEAR 
9N90W BY WED MORNING...WITH THE LOW POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER WED 
NIGHT AND THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW INTO SOUTHEASTERN 
MEXICO NEAR TEHUANTEPEC OR CENTRAL AMERICA AS A STRONGER LOW 
PRES AREA LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS 
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE STRONGEST LOW. IN COMPARISON...THE ECMWF 
AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MODERATE 
TO FRESH W-SW WINDS S OF THE TROUGH...BUT NEITHER MODEL DEVELOPS 
A SIGNIFICANT LOW SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK LOW 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH UNLESS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS 
SOLUTION OCCURS. 

STRONG ELY WINDS OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SEEPING ACROSS NICARAGUA 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL BRING FRESH E WINDS LATER TODAY FROM 
10N TO 12N E OF 90W THROUGH TUE NIGHT OR WED. CYCLONIC VORTICITY 
FROM THE ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS WILL AID INITIAL SPIN-UP OF ANY 
LOW PRES AREAS THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE GFS HOT SPOT NEAR 9N90W.

$$
GR