000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1007 MB CENTERED AT 10N110W REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MONSOON 
TROUGH UNDER FAVORABLE LOW SHEAR UPPER LEVEL...WARM SST AND 
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.  SYSTEM SHOWING SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN CURVING BANDS.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER 
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORMING WITHIN 
240 NM NW AND SE.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 09N91W TO 
13N103W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 10N109W TO 09N117W THEN ITCZ TO 
07N130W TO 07N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 04N E OF 
100W.  NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW PRES AT 10N109W.

...DISCUSSION...
MONSOON TROUGH SHOW LOW PRES SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AT 10N110W AND 
DEVELOPING SECOND LOW PRES CENTER AT 09N91W.  DIVERGING FLOW 
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 19N105W ENHANCING 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MONSOON TROUGH IN VICINITY OF 110W.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS FOCUS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT E OF 
100W...WHILE WEAKENING LOW PRES AT 10N110W.  HOWEVER...OVERALL 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN REGION DURING NEXT 24-48 HRS MAY OPEN 
DOOR FOR MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. 
PRESENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION OF LOW 
PRES AT 10N110W WITH WEAKENING AS IT DRIFT AWAY FROM FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 37N136W HAS RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
ACROSS NW PORTION OF AREA TO 18N115W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH 
1010 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN CALIFORNIA RESULT IN FRESH NLY WINDS 
ALONG COASTAL WATERS N OF 30N.  NW TO N SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 
FT CONTINUE TO INTRUDE N OF 24N W OF 118W.

STRONG ELY WINDS OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SEEPING ACROSS NICARAGUA 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO PROMPTING FRESH E WINDS MON AND INCREASING 
TO STRONG BREEZE TUE.

$$
WALLY BARNES