000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES 1008 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N107W IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND IN A FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. 
THE SYSTEM HAS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED 
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH BANDS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORMING WITHIN 240 NM NW AND SE. 
NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM 50 PERCENT 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 
09N91W TO 12N101W TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N107W TO 
07N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N124W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W...AND N 
OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE E OF 120W...WITH A LOW
INTENSIFYING NEAR 10N107W AND ANOTHER LOW FORMING NEAR 09N91W. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MARKED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THE LOW NEAR 10N
107W...UNTIL THE 00Z MODEL RUN WHEN IT SHIFTED THE FOCUS FOR TC 
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST TO E OF 100W...AND WEAKENING THE WESTERN
LOW. THIS IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...BUT THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALLOWING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CYCLO-
GENESIS TO OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT. 
EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF LOW 
PRES AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS. WILL USE A BLEND OF GLOBAL MODELS FOR CONSENSUS FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO 
AROUND 19N117W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE AREA 
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 8-10 FT NNW 
SWELL N OF 27N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 131W. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS 
GENERALLY AROUND 6-7 FT N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W.

$$
MUNDELL