000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES 1006 MB NEAR 
09N107W TO 06N122W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N122W TO 05N132W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
05N TO 08N E OF 86W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 
104W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120-150 NM SE OF 
LINE FROM 16N102W TO 10N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N107W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND HAS A LOW 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
BASED ON THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IT MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 10 KT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WINDS NEAR 
THE CENTER AT 20-25 KT. THE LOW PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE 
NEAR 10N108W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND NEAR 11N112W IN 48 HOURS. 
THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS ARE ALSO FAVORING TC DEVELOPMENT 
FURTHER EAST NEAR A TROUGH ALONG 96W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  

DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
15N109W IS ALLOWING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO GROW AND PERSIST. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
THIS ANTICYCLONE NW TO NEAR 25N125W. ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES ENE 
FROM THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MEXICO INTO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO 
AROUND 19N116W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
OVER MEXICO IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS N 
OF 26N W OF 118W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. S OF THE RIDGE...A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LOCATED FROM 08N TO 26N W OF 134W 
IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 8 FT. TRADE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES N OF THE 
AREA WEAKENS...WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO 6-7 FT.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT NW SWELL N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SPREAD FARTHER 
SOUTH...KEEPING SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE PARTICULARLY N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. 

$$
GR