000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N90W THEN CONTINUE FROM 
13N97W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 09N105W TO 09N109W TO 06N121W THEN 
ITCZ TO LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 08N138W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 80W 
TO 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 103W TO 111W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 21N145W HAS SHARP TROUGH EXTEND TO 
24N140W TO NW MEXICO WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS 
N OF AXIS. SECOND TROUGH EXTEND FROM CYCLONE TO 09N130W WITH 
DRY AIR INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION AROUND SURFACE LOW PRES 1007 
MB AT 08N138W. FURTHER E...BROAD MID / UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
AT 13N108W PROVIDES GOOD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS TO SURFACE LOW PRES 
CENTER 1007 MB AT 09N106W ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
AND ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION W OF LOW PRES. 

ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL REMAIN DRY AND ALMOST ZONAL AS RIDGE 
CREST IS FLATTENED BY LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL N OF BASIN. 

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
PERSISTENT SURFACE 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 37N142W MAINTAIN 
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 
128W...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUN AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS 
AWAY FROM AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB AT 10N105W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON 
TROUGH JUST SE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE. 
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W TO 
111W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW INTENSIFYING LOW PRES DRIFTING W-NW 
BUT WITHOUT TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN 
TRACK BEYOND 72 HRS WITH GFS CONTINUING IT W ALONG MONSOON 
TROUGH BUT ECMWF AND UKMET TAKING A MORE NLY TRACK.

FURTHER E...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE EXTEND RIDGE 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA UNTO SW CARIBBEAN ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE INTO GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NOTED S OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 80W TO 84W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES