000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUN 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 10N102W TO 
07N116W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N116W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR
08N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 8N104W IS ENHANCING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...WHILE STRONG WEST
WINDS S OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N134W ARE PROVIDING AN 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 134W...BUT RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 

HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N145W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 20N116W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER
NW MEXICO AND ARIZONA SUPPORTS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 
ALONG COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
N OF 23N E OF 127W. FRESH NE TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 127W.

LOW PRES CENTER CENTERED NEAR 10N102W WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND DRIFT SLOWLY WEST WHILE THE LOW NEAR 08N131W 
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE
EVIDENT IN N QUADRANT WITHIN 120 NM OF CIRCULATION CENTER WHILE 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS E OF CENTER DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR. 

GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMING 
MORE ACTIVE AND EXTENDING FURTHER W TO AROUND 120W-125W OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LONG TERM 5-7 DAY FORECASTS HINTING AT POSSIBLE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OCCURRING S OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W-105W.

$$
MUNDELL