000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070958 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 11N89W WHERE IT ENDS. IT BEGINS AGAIN AT 10N98W TO 09N108W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N118W TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 08N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-129W. ...DISCUSSION... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. SW TO ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N125W TO A DEVELOPING LOW AT 22N132W AND S TO 12N135W. FLATTENING MID/UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE S OF THROUGH FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 109W-127W. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE ...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER WRN MEXICO. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN PORTION SE OF THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO...AND EXTENDING WWD TO NEAR 100W. THE UPPER FLOW IS PREDOMINATELY SW W OF 100W...EXCEPT N OF 27N WHERE IT IS NW-N TO THE E OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 31N138W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION N OF 13N BETWEEN 100W-127W AND W OF 130W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SSW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DENOTE THESE CONDITIONS W OF A LINE FROM 20N120W TO 11N130W TO 09N140W...AND ALSO N OF 20N W OF 129W. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR ERN PORTION WITHIN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING N OF 05N E OF 98W AND IN THE TROPICS ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND CURRENT IMAGERY APPEAR TO IDENTIFY AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GENERAL LOCATION OF 14N94W TO 07N95W. THE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ALREADY PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WITHIN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER NLY FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS SPREADING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE CONVECTION SWD TO NEAR 03N BEFORE IT EVAPORATED IN MODERATE DRY AIR NEAR THE EQUATOR. ON THE WRN PERIPHERY...SLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NNE TO ACROSS SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND NRN HONDURAS. THESE CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NEWD TO OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AT 22N132W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SW AND DEEPEN THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REBUILD BETWEEN 109W-127W FROM 12N-27N. THE LOW MAY ALSO PROVIDE THE FLOW ALOFT WITH DIVERGENCE THAT WILL MOST LIKELY ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 08N130W OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THE ANTICYCLONE AT 31N138W WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 124W BY LATE FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS THE SRN PART OF BROAD TROUGH PASSES ALONG 32N/33N. A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS JUST NW OF THE AREA AT 342142W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 25N127W AND TO NEAR 20N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 118W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0453 UTC LATE LAST NIGHT REVEALED N-NE 20 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 128W...AND NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE NE PORTION N OF 26N E OF 122W TO THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. STRONGER NW-N WINDS OF 25-30 KT WHERE INDICATED TO BE N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W-122W...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 119W-126W. THE 1027 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER MEXICO AND IN THE TROPICS THAT PRODUCED THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL SHRINKING OF THE WIND AREAS WITH NW-N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W-125W BY FRI NIGHT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE JUST NE OF THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT. SEAS OF 10-15 FT IN THE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 12 FT BY TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT IN A NW SWELL BY FRI NIGHT. THE 1010 MB ILL-DEFINED LOW MENTIONED EARLIER REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ...AND IS CENTERED NEAR 08N130W BASED MOSTLY ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0636 UTC THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS MOVING W AT 07 KT BASED ON 24 HR TRACK MOTION. THE ASCAT PASS REVEALED NE 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT. UPPER WLY WINDS CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE LOW FROM ORGANIZING ANY...HOWEVER SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS ARE IN THE INCREASING TREND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AS THE WLY WINDS BECOME DIFFLUENT RIGHT OVER AND E OF THE LOW. WITH THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECT TO ITS NW AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION... EXPECT ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY INCREASE OVER THE THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WWD TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO REACH 135W WITH NE WINDS 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT NAMELY IN THE NW QUADRANT. $$ AGUIRRE