000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 12N91W TO 09N98W TO 
09N112W THEN ITCZ TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 10N125W THEN TO 06N130W 
TO BEYOND 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM AXIS TO 
03N E OF 102W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ILL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 05N117W HAS CREST ALONG 
120W TO BEYOND 32N.  APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENING 
CREST N OF 26N THREATENS TO DEEPEN INTO A CUT OFF CYCLONE BY 
LATE THU.  POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW JUST NW OF 
WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MAY INCREASE 
DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.  AS LONG AS LOW PRES REMAINS 
EMBEDDED IN ITCZ...LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION 
REMAINS LOW.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE FROM WESTERN CENTRAL MEXICO TO 
10N100W SPLIT ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONE FROM SECOND ONE OVER
NICARAGUA.  SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 
10N95W HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED AND DISCONTINUED FROM MAP.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES REMAINS 
UNDER DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THU.     

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB N OF AREA AT 34N137W MAINTAINS STEADY 
FLOW OF FRESH N TO NE BREEZE N OF 25N E OF 130W.  WINDS EXPAND 
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES PRESSES GRADIENT AGAINST 
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES AT 10N125W AND TROUGH ACROSS 
MEXICO MOUNTAIN RIDGE.  PRESENT 8-9 FT SEAS BOUND TO INCREASE 
WITH WINDS AND REACH 10-12 FT BY THU.      

LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 10N125W MAINTAIN FRESH BREEZE AND 8 
FT SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.  LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO 
08N130W WHILE STILL EMBEDDED IN ITCZ WITH INCREASING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER AND FRESH NE WINDS W 
OF TROUGH AXIS.

$$
WALLY BARNES