000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 10N87W TO 08N91W TO 11N97W 
TO 10N101W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
10N101W TO 11N116W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N123W TO 06N128W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W...AND FROM 03N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE 
PACIFIC IS CURRENTLY MARKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ALONG 103W N OF 10N...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 118W N OF 
10N...AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N152W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE 
CENTRAL WATERS IS SLOWLY ERODING DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN 
STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED BETWEEN 116W AND 130W THAT 
CONTINUES TO ENCROACH ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
ENROUTE TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH OF 30N TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE THE 
RIDGING. FARTHER EAST...A 30-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET 
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SHEARING ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING 
ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 88W 
AND 98W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 
30N125W TO 26N140W IN THE NW WATERS. THIS FRONT IS USHERING 
FRESH N TO NE WINDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO AN 
EARLIER 04/1826 UTC ASCAT PASS. A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL NW OF THIS FRONT NEAR 35N144W AND IS 
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER 
THE NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND 
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND NW MEXICO...WITH 
FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS EXPECTED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN NW SWELL. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE NORTH OF THE ITCZ OVER THE 
WESTERN WATERS AND ALLOW FRESH NE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN BY 
TUESDAY FROM 14N TO 25N W OF 131W.

A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 09N123W. 
EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASSES SHOW 20 KT WINDS RESIDE WITHIN 120 
NM NW OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING 
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND AS THIS OCCURS 
IN CONCERT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE 
NORTH...THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN