000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N87W TO 11N97W TO 11N106W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 07N117W TO 05N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-117W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 89W-99W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 05N85W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO 12N100W AND TO NEAR 07N107W. ELSEWHERE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE AT 15N121W COVERS THE REST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH WHERE A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW TO SE OVER WESTERN S AMERICA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NEWD BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SW TO 20N109W IS DROPPING S OVER NW MEXICO AT 27N106W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE AREA AT 22N147W IS RETROGRADING WWD WITH TIME. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO THE E OF THE LOW ARE MOVING INTO THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH A BROAD TROUGH FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA LIFTS WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW MEXICO TRACKING NE...THIS WHOLE SCENARIO SHOULD ACT TO FLATTEN THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 32N139W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N130W TO 19N121W. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS FROM ABOUT 08N TO 23N W OF 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HRS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING NW OT N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 22N E OF 123W. AN ASCAT PAST FROM 0522 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED THESE WINDS ALONG A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT. SEAS THERE ARE GENERALLY 8 FT...BUT SEAS TO 10 FT IN A N SWELLS ARE N OF 27N E OF 123W. A BROAD LOW OF 1010 MB REMAINS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 07N117W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM TO THE E AND SE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS UNDER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AT 15N121W WHERE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE...AND NO ORGANIZATION IS SEEN WITH THIS LOW AS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS HARD TO COME BY AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. MOREOVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE. A LONG-PERIOD MODERATE SWELL EVENT FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS COMMENCED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. THIS WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND COVER MOST OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY SOUTH OF 20N BY FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ONLY REACH ABOUT 8 TO 9 FEET S OF ABOUT 10N OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WHEN THE SWELL REACHES MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING...THE SWELL HEIGHTS WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 6 FEET AND WILL PEAK AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER. $$ AGUIRRE