000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N86W TO 11N106W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 07N117W TO 05N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N124W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA AT 32N141W. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS ALONG 10N W OF 130W BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES IS ALSO PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N TO NW WINDS N OF 22N E OF 125W. SHIPS A80H4...A8IY2...AND SHIP WITH NO CALL SIGN ALL ARE REPORTING NW 20-25 KT JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 00 UTC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A BROAD LOW OF 1010 MB IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N117W. WHILE SOME DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...NONE IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE OVER THE SYSTEM AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM NORTH OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. MOREOVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION...AS THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE. A LONG-PERIOD MODERATE SWELL EVENT FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS COMMENCED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. THIS WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND COVER MOST OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY SOUTH OF 20N BY FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ONLY REACH ABOUT 8 TO 9 FEET S OF 12N IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WHEN THE SWELL REACHES MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING...THE SWELL HEIGHTS WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 6 FEET AND WILL PEAK AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH CONFIGURATION IS IN PLACE OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE FIRST TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF OUR REGION AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N145W. THIS IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BUT LIKELY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. TO THE EAST...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ENE-WNW ALONG 16N115W TO 10N131W. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO DOWN TO 07N103W. THIS LIKELY HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF 100W. $$ LANDSEA