000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N84W TO 10N105W TO A 1010 MB LOW 
NEAR 07N116W TO 05N122W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05N122W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG IS FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE IS WITHIN 240 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF 
OUR AREA AT 32N140W.  THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE ALONG 
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH 
BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS.  THE GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN DURING 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS 
ALONG 10N W OF 135W.  

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES IS ALSO PRODUCING FRESH TO 
STRONG BREEZE N TO NW WINDS N OF 22N E OF 120W.  THESE SHOULD 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHIFT FARTHER 
OFFSHORE.

A BROAD LOW OF 1010 MB IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
07N116W.  WHILE SOME DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
LOW...NONE IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE 
LOW.  EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE OVER THE SYSTEM AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM NORTH OF THE 
LOW.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT AT 
SUCH A LOW LATITUDE.  MOREOVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION...AS IT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE 
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A LONG-PERIOD MODERATE SWELL EVENT FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
SHOULD COMMENCE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BOUNDARY SHORTLY.  THIS WILL 
PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND COVER MOST OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY 
SOUTH OF 20N BY FRIDAY EVENING.  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL 
ONLY REACH ABOUT 8 TO 9 FEET S OF 12N IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  
WHEN THE SWELL REACHES MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING...THE SWELL HEIGHTS 
WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 6 FEET AND WILL PEAK AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY 
AND MONDAY.

NO GAP WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER.

$$
LANDSEA