000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 09N97W TO 12N108W TO 
06N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 
04N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...WITHIN A 60 NM 
RADIUS OF 06N96.5W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W...AND 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 11N110W TO 11N115W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
24N145W. A JET STREAM IS LOCATED THROUGH 20N140W TO 25N137W TO 
30N130W AND THEN TURNS E AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE JET IS STRONGEST W OF ABOUT 135W 
WITH SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 80 TO 90 KT. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. 
THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE 
SURFACE A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W WITH THE AXIS 
LOCATED THROUGH 32N133W TO 20N110W. ALSO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 08N118W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES 
SLOWLY W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE ARE FORECAST 
S OF ABOUT 05N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 105W IN 36 HOURS.   

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W 
TO 15N94W TO NEAR 11N98W. THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. 

$$
CAB