000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282108
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 11N95W TO 
LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N105W TO 07N123W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED 
FROM 07N123W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 
115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY CUTS ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 
31N126W TO 20N140W WILL PINCH OFF A LOW JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS OVER NEXT THE TWO DAYS. THIS LOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO 
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SURFACE THAT IS ALSO BEING 
ENCROACHED UPON BY A SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY S OF THE ALEUTIAN 
ISLANDS. THE 1032 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 33N150W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 31N135W TO 18N114W. THE HIGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED EASTWARD. THE TRADE WINDS 
WILL SHRINK SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST N OF THE ITCZ IN RESPONSE 
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. 

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND TROUGHING 
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS 
GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF 27N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK NORTHWARD TO 
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON TUE AND WED.

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
PREVAIL E OF 120W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
10N105W. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. 25-30 KT E-SE WINDS ALOFT ARE SKEWING CONVECTION AWAY 
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THIS LOW 
PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT AND IS EXPECTED 
TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
SCHAUER